A recent post in the Liveable Region Blog brought to my attention the possibility that the suburban Sheppard Subway line in Toronto faces possible closure closed due to insufficient use. This story ties in rather neatly to the last issue surrounding the Cambie Village and the coming Canada Line that I'd like to explore before wrapping up this blog project: the future of the Cambie Village area.
Do I think the Canada Line will be at risk of closing due to underuse? Not a chance, although I won't be surprised if ridership initially falls below projections, necessitating government support. Rather, the Cambie connection that caught my attention in the blog post about the Sheppard line was this piece of information:
"Although the line was not placed in an ideal location", the new Sheppard line subway "has spurred over $1 billion of construction of new housing, including several high-rise condominium towers along its route."
Politicians such as BC Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon expect that completion of the Canada Line will bring unprecedented prosperity to the Cambie Village area. (This CBC news article explains Mr. Falcon's theory of a coming "economic boost.") Doubtlessly, such a boost would be reflected in rising property values as well as (even more quickly) sprouting condos.
Wouldn't new development be great news for the small businesses along Cambie, as well as for the sense of neighbourhood which is now forming there? Not if change happens too rapidly.
In the long term, changes such as the replacement of many of the old single-story storefronts along Cambie with new multi-level mixed-use developments are bound to occur and would be beneficial in terms of increased density and utility. However, Vancouver's ever-inflating real estate bubble and a municipal policy of densification means that these kinds of changes happen at astonishing speed. Rising costs alienate long-standing local businesses and residents.
Many business tenants who are now currently surviving Canada Line construction fear that they will ultimately be driven out of the area if rising property values translate into inflated rents that only high-turnover chain stores can pay. Others fear eviction if the aging shop buildings they occupy are torn down and replaced with gleaming new mixed-use developments. (Similar concerns are expressed by the owner of the Vintage Violins music shop in this Vancouver Sun article.) The empty shops now in the area can't be helping the area's stability.
The construction boom surrounding even Toronto's ill-advised, underused suburban Sheppard subway line suggests that rising land values are likely to bring rapid changes to the available types of housing surrounding the Cambie Village area as well. As older single-family homes and duplexes are razed to make way for more condominiums, higher densities will be achieved, but affordability in the area is no more likely to improve for residents than for businesses.
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